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Jan 8

Risk forecasting using Long Short-Term Memory Mixture Density Networks

This work aims to implement Long Short-Term Memory mixture density networks (LSTM-MDNs) for Value-at-Risk forecasting and compare their performance with established models (historical simulation, CMM, and GARCH) using a defined backtesting procedure. The focus was on the neural network's ability to capture volatility clustering and its real-world applicability. Three architectures were tested: a 2-component mixture density network, a regularized 2-component model (Arimond et al., 2020), and a 3-component mixture model, the latter being tested for the first time in Value-at-Risk forecasting. Backtesting was performed on three stock indices (FTSE 100, S&P 500, EURO STOXX 50) over two distinct two-year periods (2017-2018 as a calm period, 2021-2022 as turbulent). Model performance was assessed through unconditional coverage and independence assumption tests. The neural network's ability to handle volatility clustering was validated via correlation analysis and graphical evaluation. Results show limited success for the neural network approach. LSTM-MDNs performed poorly for 2017/2018 but outperformed benchmark models in 2021/2022. The LSTM mechanism allowed the neural network to capture volatility clustering similarly to GARCH models. However, several issues were identified: the need for proper model initialization and reliance on large datasets for effective learning. The findings suggest that while LSTM-MDNs provide adequate risk forecasts, further research and adjustments are necessary for stable performance.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 2, 2025

SimpleMem: Efficient Lifelong Memory for LLM Agents

To support reliable long-term interaction in complex environments, LLM agents require memory systems that efficiently manage historical experiences. Existing approaches either retain full interaction histories via passive context extension, leading to substantial redundancy, or rely on iterative reasoning to filter noise, incurring high token costs. To address this challenge, we introduce SimpleMem, an efficient memory framework based on semantic lossless compression. We propose a three-stage pipeline designed to maximize information density and token utilization: (1) Semantic Structured Compression, which applies entropy-aware filtering to distill unstructured interactions into compact, multi-view indexed memory units; (2) Recursive Memory Consolidation, an asynchronous process that integrates related units into higher-level abstract representations to reduce redundancy; and (3) Adaptive Query-Aware Retrieval, which dynamically adjusts retrieval scope based on query complexity to construct precise context efficiently. Experiments on benchmark datasets show that our method consistently outperforms baseline approaches in accuracy, retrieval efficiency, and inference cost, achieving an average F1 improvement of 26.4% while reducing inference-time token consumption by up to 30-fold, demonstrating a superior balance between performance and efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/aiming-lab/SimpleMem.

  • 8 authors
·
Jan 5 2

Steepest Descent Density Control for Compact 3D Gaussian Splatting

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has emerged as a powerful technique for real-time, high-resolution novel view synthesis. By representing scenes as a mixture of Gaussian primitives, 3DGS leverages GPU rasterization pipelines for efficient rendering and reconstruction. To optimize scene coverage and capture fine details, 3DGS employs a densification algorithm to generate additional points. However, this process often leads to redundant point clouds, resulting in excessive memory usage, slower performance, and substantial storage demands - posing significant challenges for deployment on resource-constrained devices. To address this limitation, we propose a theoretical framework that demystifies and improves density control in 3DGS. Our analysis reveals that splitting is crucial for escaping saddle points. Through an optimization-theoretic approach, we establish the necessary conditions for densification, determine the minimal number of offspring Gaussians, identify the optimal parameter update direction, and provide an analytical solution for normalizing off-spring opacity. Building on these insights, we introduce SteepGS, incorporating steepest density control, a principled strategy that minimizes loss while maintaining a compact point cloud. SteepGS achieves a ~50% reduction in Gaussian points without compromising rendering quality, significantly enhancing both efficiency and scalability.

  • 11 authors
·
May 8, 2025 2

UltraMemV2: Memory Networks Scaling to 120B Parameters with Superior Long-Context Learning

While Mixture of Experts (MoE) models achieve remarkable efficiency by activating only subsets of parameters, they suffer from high memory access costs during inference. Memory-layer architectures offer an appealing alternative with very few memory access, but previous attempts like UltraMem have only matched the performance of 2-expert MoE models, falling significantly short of state-of-the-art 8-expert configurations. We present UltraMemV2, a redesigned memory-layer architecture that closes this performance gap. Our approach introduces five key improvements: integrating memory layers into every transformer block, simplifying value expansion with single linear projections, adopting FFN-based value processing from PEER, implementing principled parameter initialization, and rebalancing memory-to-FFN computation ratios. Through extensive evaluation, we demonstrate that UltraMemV2 achieves performance parity with 8-expert MoE models under same computation and parameters but significantly low memory access. Notably, UltraMemV2 shows superior performance on memory-intensive tasks, with improvements of +1.6 points on long-context memorization, +6.2 points on multi-round memorization, and +7.9 points on in-context learning. We validate our approach at scale with models up to 2.5B activated parameters from 120B total parameters, and establish that activation density has greater impact on performance than total sparse parameter count. Our work brings memory-layer architectures to performance parity with state-of-the-art MoE models, presenting a compelling alternative for efficient sparse computation.

  • 11 authors
·
Aug 26, 2025 2

StreamGS: Online Generalizable Gaussian Splatting Reconstruction for Unposed Image Streams

The advent of 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has advanced 3D scene reconstruction and novel view synthesis. With the growing interest of interactive applications that need immediate feedback, online 3DGS reconstruction in real-time is in high demand. However, none of existing methods yet meet the demand due to three main challenges: the absence of predetermined camera parameters, the need for generalizable 3DGS optimization, and the necessity of reducing redundancy. We propose StreamGS, an online generalizable 3DGS reconstruction method for unposed image streams, which progressively transform image streams to 3D Gaussian streams by predicting and aggregating per-frame Gaussians. Our method overcomes the limitation of the initial point reconstruction dust3r in tackling out-of-domain (OOD) issues by introducing a content adaptive refinement. The refinement enhances cross-frame consistency by establishing reliable pixel correspondences between adjacent frames. Such correspondences further aid in merging redundant Gaussians through cross-frame feature aggregation. The density of Gaussians is thereby reduced, empowering online reconstruction by significantly lowering computational and memory costs. Extensive experiments on diverse datasets have demonstrated that StreamGS achieves quality on par with optimization-based approaches but does so 150 times faster, and exhibits superior generalizability in handling OOD scenes.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 8, 2025